I seems that the church may make some concessions to get their application through, sort of a "get our foot in the door" approach.
My fear is that if this is done, they may very well seek to expand anyway some time later. The town would be in less of a position to oppose this in court since the Agilent tax revenues would no longer be available to subsidize the town's litigation costs.
Unfortunately, I'm not a lawyer and am unsure if or how these anticipated concessions could really be made permanent and enforced.
What they have made so far in concessions is nothing other than grandstanding for the press. What difference does it make whether you put 500 students in 75 normal classrooms or 25 larger ones. All it means is that they would be reused at nite and for other sessions instead of being empty more often. As for the steeples, he knew he would never get them approved anyway with the height limitations already in place. They were a throw-a-way from the beginning. He will never make any significant concessions on size. He cant or he cant have his IreLAND and become the largest church in NJ. For him to do what he wants, to make the $ he wants, he has to go big.
I just heard today that the good Rev bought a house up in Sussex for over 900,000. Of course he has to make himself bigger, how else can he afford the house and car. I feel bad for his members. I'm sure plenty are tilthing money they can't really afford and he's living high on the hog. He will take this church to limits we can only imagine. And he won't even make a decent middle ground for us to accept.
So far, you folk are finding fault with everything CC says. I’m not saying that Ireland is going out of way to make concessions (clearly he is not) but he is trying to start a dialogue. However, no vORT member or RT politician will budge.
This all deepens my belief that no settlement is possible and these PB hearings are a sham It appears local Pols are hoping that a white knight swoops in to save their ass or CC just gives up and goes away. AND I don’t think CC is going to give up.
This is how I see it:
Despite the oddball view that a legal battle is worth it, many residents remember people expressing a similar view 16 years ago when we were concerned about who the next school superintendent was going to be. The oddball opinion won out, we named Parciak, went to court and lost a couple of million dollars. I don’t think the PB wants to repeat the BOE’s mistake so they won’t vote against CC.
vORT is primarily a “North of Meriden Rd” citizen group and the North End is an important political base- Just review a by ward vote analysis for the last few town wide elections. So the PB won’t vote for the church either.
Punting to the Board of Adj creates similar problems so I don’t think that’s likely. One caveat however. It’ll go to the Bd. Of Adj. if the white knight needs more time
The white knight is the school system. I know, I know you guys make mock but just wait.
At work. I work for the biggest privately owned real estate company. And my source is not involved with any of this. He just mentioned it when I said he might be able to buy cheap in Rockaway if the church gets in.
Here is a way to justify the expense on any lawsuit with CC. Using our own home value as an example, lets do a little math.
A year ago, this property was valued at about $900,000.00. In the last few months, three realtors have valued it at around $650,000.00. That represents a 38 % decrease in value in one year. The reason for this decrease in value is obvious.
OK- let us now assume that the average home in town had been worth about $400,000.00 a year ago. There are about 5,500 homes in town. The total value of real estate would be aproximately 5,500 X $400,000.00 = 2.2 billion dollars total. If your homes have gone down in value to the same ratio as ours, then the town will loose a total of 611 million dollars in real estate value if our situation is representative. That represents an average homeowners loss of about $111,000.00 per family in real estate value.
Now for the question about whether or not we can afford a lawsuit. Hmmm. Is it not obvious that we CAN NOT afford the lawsuit? The way I see it, the break even point is a per family expenditure of $111,000.00.
Other than some assumptions, I do not think that I am off by more than a half an order of magnitude either way. No matter how one looks at it, the financial effects on RT residents will be devastating. Any comments? Does this analysis make the situation we are facing here a little more clear?
I can speak to houses in my neighborhood (Oak Meadows). Last year houses where bearly breaking the 600K mark and selling rather quickly. This year they are selling in the high fives and taking much longer. A realtor freind of mine said there are 3 reasons RT is not enjoying the same prices as similar houses in other towns. First is the school system, which ranks low by Morris County standards, second is the unknowns surrounding the CC application, especially in the Beach Glenn and Meridan sections. Third is the high taxes, which most have a problem paying for sub-standard schools.
It would be nice if the town put as much pressure on the school board and administration as they are the CC Mess. Good Schools=High Property Values. I hope the new superintendent is a shaker and mover, and can make a difference to undo the damage of the incompetent administration we have had in place the last 10 years.
First you speak in terms of estimated value. Anyone who invests will tell you there is no profit or loss until an actua price is reached. Also estimated value doesn't account for the possibility (probability) that the low estimate is an attempt to scare you into selling so that a buyer can turn arround and profit from an imediate resale. Or the high estimate may be an attempt to sucker you into a contract with the realator.
Secondly, even if you assume that your values are correct, they don't apply,for the entire town.
Your problem is that you have tunnel vision. You need to deal with reality.
You say the only people concerned are north enders - people living along Green Pond north of Meridan Rd. I disagree. Please add to this list anyone living along Green Pond Rd (not many, I know) and EVERYONE living in the Meridan / Old Beach Glen section of town, meaning everyone along Meridan Road East of Green Pond Rd.
Craig,
I understand your concerns about home value, but I believe tED is right (that was hard to say). Home values will be affected less the further you get from Christ Church. People living near the Meridan Rd / Green Pond intersection (including you and I) will be affected most. Those living near the mall will not be directly affected, but rather indirectly affected by a combination of 3 items:
Loss of Agilent property taxes.
Lowering of property values because property values nearby (in the affected areas) are down even more.
Eventual increase in taxes when homes are revalued. Green Pond, Meridan, Old Beach Glen areas will have less value, therefore others will see more of an increase.
I do however completely agree with you in that home values along Green Pond Rd and along Meridan Road will be greatly affected if traffic turns out to be as bad as I think it will be.
Hi Rick old bud! You forgot the people who live in White Meadow Lake, and the developments along Sanders Road (Where the light is). Traffic backs up at that light during rush hour, and the whole town that uses the ball feild up on Green Pond will be delayed as well.
I will defend my analysis to the following extent.
1. I allowed for a great deal of error in my analysis. I said plus or minus half an order of magnitude. So, lets go to the low side of it. Half an order of magnitude downwards would be about $20,000.00 per family in lost value. Multiplying that lowball number by 5,500 families results in a total loss of $110 million. So, if we spend $110 million in tax bucks to keep this monstrosity out of this town, it would be money well spent. I gotta say it - - - either ya pay now or ya pay later as the saying goes. Paying later assumes that CC will be taking over this town with their throngs.
2. As per the concept that real estate values do not matter til one sells - I just gotta laugh. Everyone eventually sells either directly or via their estate. Your home likely represents the biggest investment that you will ever make in your life. If it diminishes in value, you are a poorer person (or family) in the long run.
3. Our particular case is that we are retired. For us to consider selling under the existing cloud so that we could move to a nicer place is sort not in the cards right now. We can not replace this residence anywhere in Morris County without digging into our retirement accounts. We live on Meriden Rd. and may end up spending our retirment living in Christ Church Hell down here.
Um, ok tED - will the aliens from mars be riding on these "white horses"?
Let's face it tED, you are in a very sMALL minority of folks that acually live here in Rockaway that are cheerleading for CC. I love how you bash the School Board at every turn - it just goes to show your true colors friend.
I could go on and on, but let it suffice that while you have you right to your opinion, the Majority of good folks here in town regard you as a sideshow that must be tolerated at best.
