Many people in this town will understand my thesis of CC growth calculations because they are quite bright. I calculated the growth of Christ Church using the classic NFV (Net Future Value) formulae. This is NOT a linear equation. Furthermore, one would not "curve fit" to an "S" shape a business which is a "going concern" which CC is. You would seed the formulae with a number representing the present value and let the math yield the compounded result - - - again not a linear relationship with respect to time. And one would never consider applying an "S" shaped curve fit to a business that is expanding its real estate square footage by a factor of 16 to 1. "S" shaped growth curves at their saturation interval implies that you are dealing with a declining business. Nobody expands the investment to the tune of 31 Million Bucks into a business that is on the Saturation portion of a growth curve. The prevailing business wisdom when you are on that portion of a growth curve is to treat it as what is known as a "Cash Cow." That means that you do not make any further investment in that endeavour and "milk it" to support other high growth ventures. (See the Boston Consulting Group Site for details on this type of analysis)
Impressive stuff ya got there; I do have to say, though, that you'll have to add me to the dummy list; I got the general idea of what you were getting at, but not much else--
Maybe I should blame all the "problems from my past" that Tod keeps bringing up lol.
You and 5reasons must have many lively conversations!
